Round 3 - /OOC

I think it's pin-you-all.

My goodness. I cannot get a post in before everything seems to get busier and busier, lol... will do so after work. :P

My dear MEC
It's really very easy
To write in haikus

Whether you mean to
Or do it by accident
It can just happen ;)


In other words, 'tis a coincidence...

I think outing the Sherrif is a suspicious enough behavior, I'm going to start looking hard at Eduardo's profile. The prevalence of the fantasy game in this scene and the water do point to him. And aren't lemmings rodents?

You know what else caught my eye and I thought it was because Stormie was born in Scotland, but the spelling of "grey" is British (and so is Eduardo).

What about the Calculus book? Isn't Gwendal Ulrich really into Math?

Sorry, but wha?

Pardon me for using the word "sheriff" in a sentence, but I think you'll find that what I was actually saying was that I thought BizzBizz was *not* the Sheriff and therefore by implication, Mafia.

So I haven't "outed" anybody. I'm looking for *mafia* clues.

Several bios mention math. Ezekial, Grenn, Armando, Gwendal, and Jacob.

However, because of their previous arguments and votes, I am inclined to think Gwendal and Jacob are not Mafia.

Okay - once again...

Armando Salvaggio

Specialty: (Such as mathematics, gunnery, mechanics): Computers, particularly hacking and programming, chess, physics, calculas

Though as close as two twins could be, Armando and Emilio grew up with a tiny fissure between them; sibling rivalry. (jealousy is another theme that pops up often in the mafia kills)

Emilio was ever the smooth-talker, getting into mischief but never anywhere to be found when the trouble was discovered, leaving Armando to sort it out. Armando, ever logical and practical could nearly always put things to right and smooth things over unfortunately, when he couldn’t Armando was left holding the bag. This, however, taught Armando the value of retaliation and patience.

But still with the instructors making a point of setting the twins against each other in every battle, doing their best to cleave the memory of childhood closeness from their minds, bolstering instead the fissure of rivalry, growing it into a gaping chasm so that when the twins encountered each other again they couldn't be entirely sure where they stood with each other - could they?

Problems with authority figures/adults...jeez, there is a wealth of evidence here that would fit the mafia. There were the e-mails in the first kill, the actual computers in the most recent kill...no one else has anything computer related in their bios. Plus, while some people have math abilities, calculus is specifically pointed out in Armando's bio.
__________________

Jacob vote for you, Emilio, the first night.

I'm on with one of the twins being mafia. But I don't think the generalized problems with authority Armando shows are the kinds of clues the mods typically use.

Perhaps if those authority issues were the only parts of his bio that were suspect, I'd agree with you, but when you add all the other things up, they're just icing.

Well, the calculus book is pretty damning.

Yeah big deal, Jacob voted for me the first night. Even I think I was a suspect the first night. However, a) you can hardly claim any of the currect clues and/or kills implicate me, and b) Jacob was the one who pointed out a VERY good clue on Domo, which I hardly think a Mafia would do.

Regardless fo who Jacob voted for on round 1, I don't think he's Mafia.

Was I supposed to hold a grudge? Because otherwise, I'm not sure what your point is there.

The SK is still alive, otherwise we go to having votes once a day.
Domo was 99% mafia, based on the Chuck E Cheese clue.

Starting with 21 players, we must have started with AT LEAST four mafia. Giving them just three would make it almost impossible to win. It would also be significantly less than the number of mafia present in previous games of similar sizes.

Lets analyze the kills one at a time:

--------------------------------

Day 1 Lynching: I'm going to use some math here, but please try and follow me: It's convincing and important.

8 votes for Dantes
6 votes for Emilio
2 for Domo
1 for Teresa
1 for Eduardo.

The two big candidates were Dantes and Emilio. I also think it is worth noting that if Michael Andrews had not edited his vote it would have ended up in a 7 - 7, although this certainly does not implicate him in any way (all he did was change his mind). What is important, though, is that Emilio survived by the skin of her teeth

This gives us three possibilities:

1) They are both townies
2) Just one of them is mafia
3) They are both mafia

Emilio voted for Domo on both day 1 and day 2, and was working towards getting him lynched from the very beginning. We now know that Domo is mafia (if you really don't believe that Domo was mafia, please go reread my posts in yesterdays OOC. If you still don't believe it, then I don't know what to tell you. It was one of the most damning clues I have ever seen). Since Emilio was trying to get Domo (a mafia) lynched, Emilio is almost certainly not mafia. This eliminates option 3 from above, which leaves us with:

1) They are both townies
2) Just Dantes was mafia

Dantes voted for Teresa. If he had voted for Emilio, his main adversary, then the score would have been 8-7. It seems unlikely, with at least four mafia alive, that they would allow such a close vote that lynches their own man. But what if they didn't allow it? What if all four mafia tried desperately to lynch emilio? I consider this likely, because the mafia likely contains at least one veteran, and veterans know that it is always a good idea to kill blackrabbit if you get the chance.

Lets see who voted for Emilio:

Myself
Lynn
Grenn
Domo
Eduardo
Ezekial

I voted for her the first day because her behavior was a little strange and I didn't see any good clues for anyone. I have since rescinded that view because there have been no clues pointing to her whatsoever. I can't speak for anyone else's motives, HOWEVER, I think it is worth noting that on day 2, only three people did not vote for Domo: Domo himself, Eduardo, and Ezekial. All three voted for Splaz, despite OVERWHELMING evidence pointing at Domo.

And one more fact: On day 1, Eduardo and Ezekial both voted for blackrabbit within four minutes of each other (8:06 and 8:10, respectively). Then, at 8:15, DOMO EDITS HIS VOTE FROM DANTES TO EMILIO, just 20 minutes after he made his original vote. What made him change his mind so quickly? I will tell you what: He conferred with his mafia buddies and decided that lynching blackrabbit was a better move than lynching dantes.

Then, the next day, when I uncover the Chuck E Cheese clue, his buddies Eduardo and Ezekial try to save him by saying things like "I just don't see strong enough evidence to lynch him yet." when there absolutely was strong enough evidence. Ezekial didn't say much, but Eduardo tried as hard as he could, given the overwhelming evidence against Domo.

My theory for this:
Domo was mafia (this is almost certainly true
Eduardo is the godfather and was defending domo because he knows he can't be ID'd
Ezekial is also mafia, and was keeping quiet for fear of drawing too much attention to himself and getting ID'd

I'm not sure who the fourth mafia is but I have an idea and will post once I have finished reviewing evidence.

Yay - nicely put Jacob!

Hmmm… that’s an interesting theory floating about. It really is. I would, however, counter that Grenn Rosby’s father was a mathematics professor (I do love symbolism and that seems significant) and yes there are other mentions of folks being gifted in math… I –think- there is at least one other mention of calculus in some one’s bio (curse this being at work thing!) additionally the type of book may not be at all important what could be important is in Michael Andrew’s bio (Pharren again) the mention of a I understand why we are looking at the computer in particular, but for my money it is the fantasy game that is more important the fantasy game just happens to be on everyone’s desk. But only one person, Eduardo, has a fantasy world.

And WOW Jinheim! That does put a smashing new spin on things. I cannot WAIT to get home now!.

Armando :D

you sure do paint a pretty picture Jinheim. all thats missing is a happy little tree.

when i get home im going to go over everything from day 1 and see if i come up with the same stuff you have going on here. *backspace backspace* yeah... ill just wait until i get home

*throws down the gauntlet*
Alright, prove me wrong. I challenge you to find a haiku from any non-mafia kill scene. It should also be a single quotation by one individual.

I learned a new trick. If you're in Mozilla with images off you can get a quick reply window when you first log in. For those who are operating from work.

I think Jinheim's logic is pretty good except that I don't see all of the mafia voting for one person on the very first day, so I don't think we'll round up all of them like that. I also think it's entire possible there is more than four mafia. Remember four is a number blackrabbit/Emilio originally said, when folks were using that to say she was guilty. (I thought she was guilty based on the two soldiers clue, but I had missed Armondo's profile previously.) With 20 players, I think there could be five or possibly even more.

But I'm on board with either Eduardo or Armando for now, since it's looking more and more like Domo was mafia and not SK.

Gosh, well this all seems very incriminating so I’m guessing that nobody’s going to listen to anything I say because that’s it – I’m the Godfather.

Well, just suppose for a minute that I’m not and listen to what I’ve got to say for myself. If afterwards you still think that I’m mafia/Godfather then fine, go back to that assumption but I’d at least feel better about myself for blurting this out.

/dons Poirot hat…

IF I was mafia, then then this is how I would vote. On the first round, the clues are so few and far between that really it is no better than a stab in the dark as to who to vote for. I’d know the other mafia members of course, but I wouldn’t know the SK and I REALLY WOULDN’T WANT THEM TO BE HIT.

So what do I do? Well, I’d put forward someone WHO CANNOT POSSIBLY BE SK for the lynch – and out of everyone, the only person who we can be 99.99% sure is *not* SK is Domo since the “Shepherd of Death” in his bio is such a ridiculously blatent pointer that it *must* be false.

BlackRabbit puts forward Domo on page 1 of the OOC thread. Also on page one is where BR subtly adds the I’m a townie reference “Four mafia and a SK can completely devastate a group of townies. We're not so numerous…”. Call me cynical, but there was really no need to add this superlative point. Den leaps immediately to BlackRabbit’s defence. For the rest of the thread, BlackRabbit counters arguments for other people and never sways from the “Domo is SK” idea despite being a seasoned player she jumps on the WORLD’S MOST OBVIOUS CLUE THAT CAN’T POSSIBLY BE CORRECT.

Eventually, Dante is lynched. I’m not sure whether Dante was actually mafia or not (the number 2 appearing in subsequent mafia hits lends me to believe he was), but if he was mafia, then since the leading two candidates for lynching were Dante and Emilio, then one mafia was inevidently gonna get it, and the best strategy is to stick with Domo and try to convince people to vote for him. Interestingly despite Den wanting to vote Domo (same as Blackrabbit) she switched to Dante in order to ensure that BlackRabbit isn’t lynched.

By round 2, Domo’s for the chop again but this time it’s because he’s mafia. Or is it still because he’s DEFINITELY NOT THE SK? I don’t deny that there was evidence against him, but it didn’t seem so utterly damning as to justify the complete conviction in the thread. Den kindly reminds us on page 1 of the 2nd OOC thread “not to forget about Domo”.

This is the same round where of BlackRabbit, Den says, “On the other hand...she's not lying! So your assertion that she is attempting to pretend otherwise, is a lie.”

Another total conviction. How can Den be SO SURE of what BlackRabbit says?

So, where are we at? Nothing terribly damning but I have an uneasy sense that these two are in cahoots when, at least initially they should have been mindful of each other. So… fast forwards to round 3…

And here’s where the insinuations that Den is the Sheriff start… “Domo was mafia, and Eduardo is not.”…. “Correction - Eduardo could be the godfather.”. So, I call Den out on this because I presumed that implying that you’re the Sheriff is a sure way to be mafia hit. Therefore it added credence to my view that Den and BlackRabbit are mafia.

This is where I start getting PMs from BlackRabbit. I was being told not to stir up who was Sherrif because that would be bad for the townies. Regardless of the fact that it was clearly Den who first made any such implications.

Then, the motives come out. Since I’m either the Godfather or a townie (and BlackRabbit was betting on townie) I was told that yes, the Sheriff is alive and what Den was doing was a cunning ruse to distract the mafia away from the “real” sheriff. Was BlackRabbit the real sheriff? Well she was rather mindful of saying so much, but it was kind of a nod nod, wink wink kind of set up. But, as BlackRabbit is so keen to point out… so far there’s NO EVIDENCE POINTING AT BLACKRABBIT… so why have Den come out of the fold and practically admit to being Sheriff?

BlackRabbit admitted that they didn’t know what Domo was on round one, but they figured SK (even though the clue was crap). By round 2, they knew he was mafia – i.e. he’d been ID’ed at the end of round 1. However, personally, I’d have ID’ed Den since they seem to be a double-act.

By round 3, BlackRabbit knew that I was townie or Godfather – again because I’d been ID’ed. But still, Den has not been ID’ed so how can BlackRabbit rely on Den as an ally?

Whichever one of them is Sherrif, neither one has ID’ed the other and therefore they shouldn’t be able to trust each other. And yet they do. Why? Because neither is sheriff. At least one of them is mafia and is either playing the other or they’re both mafia.

So to recap… I DO NOT BELIEVE I AM OUTING THE SHERIFF by naming BlackRabbit and Den.

I BELIVE I AM OUTING THE MAFIA.

Find your own clues, I’m tired.

/removes Poirot hat.