ROUND 3 OOC

To say things are not turning out how I thought they would this round would be an understatement. There were three things I was *certain* of, and now I don't know what to think.

Thing 1: Verileah was SK.

I was so sure from that pixie / faerie clue and turned out to be dead wrong.

Thing 2 and thing 3 influence each other.

2: Either Pharren or Vulash is in the mafia.

Both have stuck their necks out so far that it's nearly impossible for me to believe this anymore. It seems equally unlikely to me, though, that both would be on the same team. So I have NFC.

3: SnowDragon is in the mafia.

If Pharren and Vulash are both townies, this makes sense. If Vulash is in the mafia, then SnowDragon pretty much has to be a townie. Making that list and putting your teammate at the top is fucking nuts. If Pharren is in the mafia, Snow also has to be a townie since voting for her and giving Vulash's plan credibility would also be fucking nuts.

So let's think about it... There are three variables yielding 8 combinations. V is Vulash, P is Pharren, and S is Snow. T is Townie and M is Mafia.

1.: P = T; V = T; S = T: This would be the "honest mistake" scenario. Not much to say beyond that besides "oops!"
2.: P = T; V = T; S = M: This is probably the optimal case for us all, but if this is the case, I was way off in my assumptions.
3.: P = T; V = M; S = T: Here Vulash would have played us all and advanced his game plan considerably.
4.: P = T; V = M S = M: Insanity case 1. This would take balls / ovaries of plutonium.
5.: P = M; V = T; S = T: Here Vulash would have played right into Pharren's hands. Mafia game plan would be advanced.
6.: P = M; V = T; S = M: Insanity case 2. Vulash presents a good game plan for the townies and Pharren gives it credibility.
7.: P = M; V = M; S = T: Both mafia and fucking brave. This is the worst possible case for us and is a pretty tough sell.
8.: P = M; V = M; S = M: No way. Not a chance after all the shit posted in this thread.

There are two cases where the votes make sense: 1, 2 and 7. Both of these cases go against my 2nd assumption, and cases 1 and 7 go against my 3rd assumption as well.

Case 3 seems plausible from what I've heard about Vulash being devious. Again, though, he's stuck his neck out so far that it's difficult to imagine. This would be pretty bad news for us.

Cases 4 and 6 would be pretty fucking crazy on the part of the mafia members.

Case 5 would be the analog to case 3. Devious and bad, but not as bad as case 7.

I would consider case 8 completely impossible. This would imo be the funniest of all possibilities, but is sadly also the most unlikely, given its sheer ridiculousness.

So, I guess in order from the most probable to the least, I'd have to put my bets on:

1 or 2, then
3 or 5, then
7, then
4 or 6, then
8

Gongaa, you're kind of awesome.

Edit - sorry, as for why Vudu over Nadiya - if we're still thinking that the GF is a dude, we can't necessarily trust a Not Mafia SKID for the dudes (although I'm far from certain on that), but we might have more confidence in a not mafia SKID for Nadiya and know sooner that we're on the right track. So all things being equal I think we should kill a dude tonight. But it might be too late to halt this train lol.

Of course, this could all be part of my evil man-killing plot O_O.

Kilandra, I totally see where you're coming from. It's weird because we both seem to have the same sort of balls-out play style with a heavy independent streak. That said, a working townie alliance is freakin' beautiful and I really want to see if we can make it work. On the other other hand, I think it's absolutely important to continue thinking for ourselves, figuring out clues on our own, listening to our instincts on who's acting suspicious, etc. So, yeah, I see where you are and if it turns out you're a townie, I promise I won't hold your reservations against you ;).

Not necessarily... I can name two people whose playstyle was SO completely and unforgiveably offensive and just flat-out uncalled-for, that after the game, I had zero interest in forgiving them.

JUST SAYIN!

Gongaa - Why did you make assumption #2? I find it odd because I really figured between me, you, and pharren Roz would make at least one of us mafia - not for any elite reasons - just because we all think the same way, and I figured she'd want to deviously pit us against each other.

I'm not convinced your a townie, but coming into the game I was convinced either you or Pharren were mafia - and so far Pharren has very few clues (Motif's are all that fit that I've found) and you do have a lot of clues against you - and I'm still not sure you aren't - but OOC play has lead to me think it's probably not you (including this post).

I find it odd because I really figured between me, you, and pharren Roz would make at least one of us mafia - not for any elite reasons - just because we all think the same way, and I figured she'd want to deviously pit us against each other.

Because Vulash is really the GF and we are all going to burn in hell for following him!

I'm finding it very interesting that the people who were suspect for the "Planet Earth" and extinction reference are following the vote proposal set forth by Vulash.

If in fact 1 of them is mafia and Nadiya is as well, why are they voting for her?

Of course, the mafia could also have decided to sacrifice someone in order to make everyone else think Vulash is right and then the rest on the list are indeed townies to be slaughtered without a second thought.